These are the traffic forecasts from the Linking Melbourne Authority’s Impact Statement on the East West Link.
Given they are a public “Authority”, not just a promoter of a highly dodgy scheme, you would expect these to be dispassionate objective analysis.
But wait, under the Major Transport Facilitation Act they have also been appointed as the “Project proponent” so the lines are a little blurred.
Leaving aside questions of objectivity, what are they claiming for traffic reductions from the East West Link? In a nut shell:
Even if the East West link is built, there will be more traffic on Alexandra Parade in 2031 than today.
Exhibit A: Change in Traffic in 2031 if no tunnel is built.
This shows that Alexandra Parade is predicted to have an increase of at least 20% and as high as 50%. [but see comment below]
This is assuming no road tunnel, no train improvements and no mass ecological collapse or economic shocks. The business as usual case.
Exhibit B shows the predicted traffic if the East-West Link were built. Predictably Alexandra Parade has less orange, but it is still carry higher traffic than today.
Alexandra Parade is still orange! Even if the East West link is built, there will be 10% more traffic on Alexandra Parade in 2031 than today. And therefore it will probably be just as slow as today. Queens Parade is looking deep red too.
The difference from the no tunnel case is that this will all be local bound traffic. It won’t just clog up the Parade, but local streets and car parks as well.
The project will free capacity on Alexandra Parade that will be re-appropriated by motorists who will discover a a convenient route into the city and northern suburbs.
The differences predicted in actual traffic volumes are not shown in the main CIS report, but only appear in the technical appendix.
This map shows blue lines where the model thinks traffic would be less-worse in 2031 if the tunnel were built than if not.
Red lines show where they admit the tunnel actually makes things worse – by inducing traffic.
Even for the blue lines, there is still an increase on today’s traffic, which is built in by the current transport and population policies of the two major parties.
The figure shows a large and predictable increase in rat-running in Clifton Hill west of Hoddle Street.
The tunnel will also bring more grief to Chandler highway.
The tunnel will merely shift congestion from the central corridor to its edges.
The blue lines can be explained by the tunnel attracting traffic of adjacent routes.
Daniel Bowen from the PTUA looked at the same congestion busting claims made to justify CityLink. He concludes “The result is that while there are some time savings, they are nowhere near what was promised. The travel times in AM peak today in most cases are actually closer to the pre-motorway times than the promised times.”
And the expert’s ‘clarification’ : Traffic expert says claims peak hour east-west link traffic would be reduced to 30kmh in 2031 are incorrect
There is no modelling for after this date.